SpaceX stock (SPCX) is sliding in early Monday trading, down 3.65% premarket after a sharp rally-to-reversal following its June 12 IPO. The company debuted at $135 per share, opening at $150 and closing its first day at $160.95 (+19.3%), which briefly pushed market cap above $2 trillion and surpassed Amazon's valuation intraday. Underwriter stabilization and retail euphoria kept the stock elevated through Tuesday before cracks widened: shares fell 5% Wednesday and 3.6% Thursday (pre-Juneteenth holiday).
Despite the sellback, SPCX remains +37% from IPO price as of late last week, and the $75 billion raise (555.6M shares at $135) ranks as the largest IPO in history, beating Alibaba's 2014 debut. SpaceX's original $1.77 trillion IPO valuation reflected aggressive expectations: the firm posted $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and $4.28 billion Q1 2026 loss. Consensus bearishness: CFRA initiated with 'Sell' at $115 (implying 29% downside from Friday close); Morningstar values SpaceX at $63/share.
However, NewStreet Research initiated with $165 target, arguing that a 20–25 year timeframe justifies current valuation, citing SpaceX's 10+ year lead in reusable rocket tech. Elon Musk posted on X that SpaceX 'might be able to reach approximately' $1 trillion revenue by 2030 (vs. $18.7B in 2025—implying 50% CAGR, a growth pace with no historical precedent).
Architects watching capex allocation and cloud infrastructure buildout should monitor: SpaceX's xAI unit and Musk's stated ambitions to build AI data centers frame the business as a play on compute infrastructure, not just space launch. Goldman Sachs-led underwriters are reportedly prepping a $20B+ bond offering for SpaceX, showing the IPO was step one of a major debt/equity capital raise cycle.