Nvidia stock closed at $225 on August 17, the second consecutive session at that level, marking its highest close since mid-May as sentiment toward the chip leader warmed. The stock has gained 20% year-to-date, outpacing the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and is trading on expectations of Q2 FY27 earnings on August 26 (next Wednesday). Wall Street consensus projects $91–$95 billion in revenue, a 95%+ year-over-year increase, with data center dominating the mix. The company's own guidance was $91 billion, suggesting beat optionality.
Three factors are driving the rally: (1) Revised details on Nvidia's Ohio data center backstop reducing perceived risk from $250 billion to $105 billion (covering only the initial 4.25-gigawatt build), with Nvidia investing $1.5 billion in SB Energy, the project owner; (2) A $500 billion securitization initiative announced last week in partnership with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to create asset-backed securities for compute, de-risking future capex; (3) Surging reported revenue run-rates from OpenAI ($40B) and Anthropic ($65B), signaling sustained hyperscaler spending.
For infra architects and buyers, the August 26 print is a bellwether. Analysts expect gross margins to hold near 75% and are watching for forward guidance on Q3 (consensus $103+ billion). Consensus price targets are $302 (34% upside), though valuation at 22x forward earnings and 25.4x forward P/E sits at sector premium. Vera Rubin is ramping full production with cloud-vendor adoption expanding beyond hyperscalers. The key risk remains: if guidance signals deceleration or if margin pressure emerges from competitive offerings (AMD MI300, custom chips), the stock could reverse quickly. Execution risk is asymmetric heading into next week.