SpaceX AI division targets $100B ARR by year-end amid $18.4B capex surge
SpaceX reported $18.4 billion in Q2 capex, with over 80% directed toward AI infrastructure, as the company races to monetize its data center buildout. CFO Bret Johnsen claimed a "less than one-year payback" on AI compute spend, citing new contracts worth $6.7 billion of cloud services revenue ramping in October. The company targets $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by December 2026, assuming the $60 billion Cursor acquisition closes.
These contracts include deals with Google (up to $920 million/month), Anthropic ($1.25 billion/month for three years at Memphis Colossus), and Reflection AI ($150 million/month). SpaceX's SpaceXAI unit lost $1.26 billion in Q2 on $2.56 billion revenue, but management projects margin expansion as utilization climbs. CEO Elon Musk called the December ARR target "not a question mark."
Wall Street remains skeptical: the stock sank 7.5% after-hours despite Q2 revenue beating estimates by 92% YoY. Investors question the sustainability of a strategy that relies on reselling AI capacity as a bridge to longer-term sovereign AI and space-based compute ambitions. The company faces $354 million in litigation accruals for operating gas turbines at Memphis without permits.