The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) gained 8.5% on July 30—its best day since April 9, 2025—with follow-on gains bringing the two-day rally to 5.4% Friday. The rebound was triggered by blockbuster earnings: Microsoft reported Azure cloud revenue growth of 43% and maintained aggressive AI infrastructure spending; Amazon raised 2026 capex guidance to $220 billion and saw AWS deliver growth strong enough to trigger a 10%+ stock pop. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 8.19%, with Micron up 18.43%, AMD +13%, Intel +11.30%, and SK Hynix ADRs +17.52% on Thursday.
South Korea's chip heavyweights extended the rally Friday: SK Hynix surged over 25% (on course for its best day on record) and Samsung Electronics jumped over 20%. Japanese chip equipment makers rallied sharply—Advantest +17.9%, Tokyo Electron +9%, Disco +13.2%, Lasertec +12.2%, Renesas +10%. The strength reflected relief that the megacap capex cycle, despite memory price headwinds and balance-sheet pressure, remains intact and committed.
The mood shift was abrupt: earlier in July, semiconductor stocks suffered a >$1 trillion wipeout amid concerns that AI spending was nearing its peak. But Thursday's and Friday's results—showing cloud growth accelerating, capex guidance rising, and cloud profitability improving—reset the narrative. For a sector that has been the primary capex vehicle for the AI buildout, the message was clear: the cycle is not stalling; the capex intensity is just being priced in higher than expected.